Unser theoretisches Fundament
The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Market Efficiency from an Evolutionary Perspective
– Lo, Andrew W. 2004. Journal of Portfolio Management 30th anniversary issue: 15-29.
„The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) implies, that
(1) the equity risk premium is not constant through time but varies according to the recent path of the stock market and the demographics of investors during the path;
(2) asset allocation can add value by exploiting the market’s path dependence as well as systematic changes in behavior;
(3) all investment products tend to experience cycles of superior and inferior performance;
(4) market efficiency is not an all-or-none condition but is a characteristic that varies continuously over time and across markets; and
(5) individual and institutional risk preferences are not likely to be stable over time“.
– Lo, Andrew W. 2005. „Reconciling Efficient Markets with Behavioral Finance: The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis“. Journal of Investment Consulting. Vol 7, No.2.: 22.